Near-term regional climate change in East Africa

Abstract In the coming few decades, projected increases in global temperature and humidity are generally expected to exacerbate human exposure climate extremes (e.g., humid-heat rainfall extremes). Despite growing risk of stress (measured by wet-bulb temperature), it has received less attention East Africa, where arid semi-arid climatic conditions prevail. Moreover, no consensus yet been reached across models regarding future changes over this region. Here, we screen Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 CMIP6 use, for boundary conditions, simulations only those GCMs that simulate successfully recent trends. Based on these Regional Model (RCM) simulations, project annual mean is likely rise 2 ? toward midcentury (2021–2050) ?at a faster rate than average (about 1.5 ?), under RCP8.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios, associated with more frequent severe extremes. particular, low-lying regions Africa will be vulnerable heat stress, an extreme approaching or exceeding US National Weather Service’s danger threshold 31 ?. On other hand, population centers highlands Ethiopia receive significantly precipitation during autumn season see events, implications flooding agriculture. The robustness results all GCM RCM both frameworks (CMIP: Coupled Inter-comparison Project) supports reliability projections. Our near-term change impacts designed inform development sound adaptation strategies